Forecasting environmental issues

Summary

Reading time: 5-10 min

Okay, so I've been struggling with how to formulate my point in this post without sounding over-intellectual or throwing too much stuff at you. Basically it can be boiled down to this: 

Humans are horrible at predicting major events. Or predicting just about anything really.

It's not a coincidence that we have tons of cultural jokes and memes around this very problem. Ranging from the more innocent miscalculations of how much time one needs before catching the bus on the way to work/school, to the catastrophic cases with meltdowns in nuclear reactors, financial bubbles etc. If you get anything out of this post or already feel the urge to go and play tennis or something then at least remember this: We need to be extremely careful when we decide on matters that have a time-delay or take place in the future. Especially when major risks are involved. With that said bare with me and join me down the rabbit hole.

Land burnt down for agriculture: Río Urubu, Amazonas, Brazil

Randomness

We usually look at previous data and draw a linear curve into the future or otherwise make linear-oriented conclusions. This tendency amongst our kind irritated the financial trader and erudite Nassim Nicholas Taleb to the point that he released a book trilogy on the nature of randomness. The title of his second book "The Black Swan" has amusing origins. People always thought that ALL swans where white until someone saw a black one in Australia. Notice how all of history until that point showed no signs of black swans and how the existence of one such swan destroyed the whole assumption. That is the nature of randomness, whether something is truly random or just an "unknown unknown", the outcome is still the same: Strong empirical data is not always conclusive AND the nature of reality is fundamentally unpredictable. I.e. shit happens. This can be extremely harmful when we are dealing with critical issues concerning our existence as a species.

Unfortunately, the science on what environmental effects that await us - in case we go along with business as usual as our ecological policy - is clear; massive species extinction (on land and sea), resource scarcity due to over-exploitation, rising sea levels and millions of climate refugees. The list goes on. 

What we don't know is way more scary though. It is not reasonable to expect that we can map all of the possible outcomes in the first place. To begin with, there are some effects that are triggered after a certain "tipping point". After which a seemingly massive level of events unfold. For example, 19 % of the Amazon rainforest has been deforested during the last 50 years and might after a certain point not be able to regrow at all, due to erosion and other factors. The decline is not gradual but sudden and extreme. Tipping points are known unknowns: Meaning that the exact date or scale is uncertain, but that it for sure will come. One must therefor always be prepared, or at least not pretend as if major events never will take place. Both in one's personal life but perhaps even more so when choosing a political system on a governmental/global level.

Exponential Growth

Some time ago a lecture on exponential growth by physics professor Albert A. Bartlett became popular on youtube. He set out to teach the effects of nonlinear growth, most importantly a phenomena's doubling time. If something increases by 7 %/year, it will have doubled by 10 years and keep doubling every 10 years. This may sound boring or just unintuitive to you but let's present an example: Let's say that the population of the planet or the combined worldwide use of fossil fuels increases by 3.5 % annually. In that case our planet will inhabit close to 15 billion people and the need for oil will have doubled in 20 years. 20 years ahead is not even that hard to imagine, but those two facts in combination will most likely produce consequences that none of us wants to imagine. My example is not even that extreme, some figures suggest even higher numbers. Still we are living our lives and conducting public policy in the spirit of business as usual. You can insert your favorite example in the exponential growth curve and probably find just as shocking results. The worst part is that a world in which your mathematical forecast becomes reality actually might await us.

Sustainable future?

The normal answer to the above-mentioned facts is that humanity always produces some new technology or a new set of practices to offset these catastrophies. Ironically this goes right against the concept of us not seeing major events before they already have arrived. Just because we in the past could save ourselves from doom by engineering some invention or what have you to get around the problem, it doesn't mean that we always will. This is such an easy thing to understand but our collective plan against our generation's most pressing issues is basically just a hope for that someone somewhere will figure it out. And why not try to make a smooth transition in stead of having the knife against our throats and being forced to do what's necessary? The worst thing is not to wake up and find yourself in a situation of chaos, civil unrest and the complete destruction of life as we know it. The worst thing would be the realization that it could have been avoided...

"If not us, then who? If not now, then when?" - John E. Lewis

Sources: 

• The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb (on amazon)
• Lecture on exponential growth, Albert A. Bartlett (on youtube)
• Big World, Small Planet, Rockström & Klum (on amazon)

Sunset in the Pantanal, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Mänskliga Rättighetsdagarna (MR-Dagarna) 2015 - Göteborg

Den 9-10 november var det Göteborgs tur att hålla Mänskliga Rättighetsdagarna och eventet tog så klart plats på Svenska Mässan. I detta inlägg tänkte jag dels nämna vad jag tog med mig från de föreläsningar jag var på - med fokus på miljöfrågor - samt skriva några av mina funderingar kring volontärande i stort, eftersom jag arbetade som funktionär och fotade en del.

Temat för året var rasism, men som ovan nämnt låg mitt fokus på miljöfrågor. En av de utmaningar som står framför oss är hur människor kan hitta/bevara en försörjning samtidigt som vi främjar en såväl hållbar social som ekologisk utveckling. I en föreläsning arrangerad bl.a. av Fairtrade kallad "Allas rätt till en levande planet" togs just detta tema upp. Frågan skulle kunna besvaras utifrån två aspekter. Dels genom att belysa de negativa konsekvenser som väntar såväl arbetare som planeten i övrigt ifall vi inte ställer om till miljövänligare metoder och dels nämna att det faktiskt kan vara lönsamt att ställa om. Exempel på det förstnämnda skulle kunna vara drägligare arbetsvillkor och på lång sikt färre flyktingströmmar. Arbetsvillkor rör primärt arbetarnas fysiska och psykiska hälsa men påverkar även naturen runtomkring då exempelvis ekologisk odling har en betydligt bättre miljöpåverkan. Vad gäller flyktingströmmarna är det inte längre någon hemlighet att orsakerna bakom det faktum att människor flyr sina länder ibland kan härledas till klimatproblem, eller som jag tänker diskutera vidare nedan, ibland ännu mer lokala miljöeffekter. Klimatflykt kan t.ex. handla om den emigrering som följer en klimatorsakad torka som leder till social oro p.g.a matbrist.  UNHCR bedömer att antalet klimatflyktingar i framtiden kan vara så högt som mellan 250 miljoner - 1 miljard personer. Ingen kan längre gömma sig. 

Slutligen kan även här nämnas att varor som klassas som Fairtrade ofta kostar mer av en anledning. Istället för att vinstmaximera har företaget gjort den bedömningen att konsumenter och andra i näringskedjan eftersöker bl.a. hållbarhet och rättvisa vid sidan om varans fysiska attribut. En väldigt konkret skillnad kan t.ex. vara högre löner som i sin tur faktiskt presenterar ett på alla sätt och vis bättre alternativ för arbetarna än andra, mer klimatnegativa karriärsval. Kvar fattas bara den politiska viljan och den etiska viljan från konsumenter att ta ställning vid dagligvaruhandel.

Diakonia stod bakom en annan intressant föreläsning kallad "Global Climate Justice" med Anna Axelsson - Diakonia och Nnimmo Bassey - Prisbelönt miljöaktivist från Nigeria. Samtalet kretsade mycket kring oljeutvinning i Niger-deltat. Bassey menade att klimatproblem till stor del är ett problem kopplat till mänskliga rättigheter. Från sin erfarenhet nämner han det marginaliserade Ogoni-folket som gång på gång blivit överkörda av staten samt stora oljebolag som Shell i jakten på olja, där minimal hänsyn har tagits till såväl deras röst, som hälsa och försörjning. Bl.a. har stora delar av området blivit odugligt för jordbruk, i vissa områden har grundvattnet blivit förgiftat samt att tusentals personer , däribland framstående miljöaktivister blivit dödade eller tvingats fly p.g.a. konflikter med staten. Globale Climate Justice handlar om att det råder en obalans mellan vilka som får nyttja resurserna som utvinns och de som får ta notan. Det kan vara bekvämt eller åtminstone svårt att ta till sig problem som sker långt bort ifrån ens vardag, men effekterna av miljöproblem och informationen kring dem sprids allt längre bort. Bassey tryckte därför också på att det senaste klimatavtalet samt andra åtaganden bör beakta den snedvridna relation som pågått i århundraden. Rika länder bör därför generellt sett ta ett större ansvar men specifikt även bekosta de skador som redan har uppstått och som fortfarande pågår. Återigen lever vi i allt mindre grad isolerat från vår omvärld och konsekvenserna av tidigare mönster börjar nu visa sig. Ett enormt gemensamt ansvar är det enda som duger för en hållbar utveckling. Ingen kan längre gömma sig. 

Nnimmo Bassey: Ordförande för Environmental RIghts Action, Nigeria & vinnare av Right Livelihood Award 2010.

Avslutningsvis ville jag bara nämna min medverkan i denna mässa. Från att ha sett reklam för eventet på en spårvagn tog det mig ca två dagar innan jag var anmäld som volontär. Oavsett om man gör en längre tjänst hos någon organisation utomlands eller om man som jag i detta fall arbetar mer lokalt kan jag verkligen rekommendera det! Du kommer inte bara kunna medverka och bidra till en positiv utveckling (ibland väldigt konkret sådan) men också kunna dra mycket lärdom av tjänsten. Inte minst på ett personligt plan. Jag tror inte det är någon slump att många människor efter avslutade studier väljer att bege sig till mer utsatta områden i världen och arbeta gratis för att få erfarenhet och perspektiv på tillvaron. Känner du dig fast i gamla mönster, vill göra något nytt, och/eller bidra med något gott? Anmäl dig till något, vad som helst. jag vet inte vad du brinner för men det finns fler ändamål än vad du tror och all hjälp behövs! Just do it!

How to properly write bucket lists and set goals in life

If you have a stereotypical Type-A personality like I do, chances are that you keep a bunch of lists. Actually, I think most people have a list of some sort, with the most common ones being the to-do list and the so called bucket list. I don't know about you but I've always had a neurotic and love-hate type of relationship to these lists. Meaning: I had to push myself towards completing/achieving/attaining whatever was on them, rather than being pulled into the task. My objective in this post will be to propose a new way of handling goals in life and perhaps free some of you from becoming a slave to your list.

I just picked up the book "The Desire Map" by Danielle LaPorte which - in short - suggests that you shouldn't focus on the goals themselves but rather on what you want to feel when you complete them. In other words, don't set up goals like: Lose X weight, earn X amount of money, or buy X. Instead, focus on what it is that you're ULTIMATELY trying to reach. One way of looking at the above mentioned examples could be that you're actually craving self confidence, financial freedom, or a sense of status amongst your peers. This conversion of motives was really helpful for me because it forced me to be clear and specific on what the hell it was that I wanted. I'm not saying that you shouldn't get in better shape or that you should leave money on the table. What I am saying though is that rarely will goals of that sort motivate you to take any action and, even worse, reaching them might not give you the sense of accomplishment that you were looking for. 

Let me give you a few examples from my life.

Weight loss - Stress from school and work, shitty eating habits and a depression following my tumor removal, were probably some of the causes in play when I got seriously overweight some years ago. Several cycles of yo-yo dieting had me against the ropes. Losing weight and putting it all back on made me feel miserable. As if I had zero self control and just moved from one impulse on to the next one. Sadly, the first progress I had was due to silly external motives. Like impressing women I had been rejected by or just planning some dreamy revenge, where I'd show up ripped as hell and everyone would be super impressed. This did not work out for long... It did however, make me reconsider my goals in search of a more compelling reason. The result? I realized that I wanted to feel strong, energized and revitalized. I'm over-simplifying of course, there was a lot of emotional issues and poor habits to be dealt with and so on. But imagining what it would feel like to move around in a fit and healthy body served me a lot more, than white knuckling some diet regimen in order to be the alpha male at a future imaginary social gathering.

Money - In the spirit of the previous paragraph, I'd like to begin by unpacking the need for more money. Is it really a treasure chest of gold you want in your living room? All jokes aside, often times the desire for money alone (for me anyway) was either due to lack of clarity or because of social pressure. You don't want to be the person who's chronically overworked and barely gets to see his/her family and loved ones. At least not to perpetuate a grand image of yourself by going into debt or just spending lots of money on stuff you don't even want or need. We need to become more conscious about the effects of advertising and plain peer pressure on our consuming habits.

Wouldn't you agree that the things we're actually looking for (beyond financial stability) are TIME and RESOURCES to have fun? I.e. the option to avoid unpleasant activities and maximize the positive ones. In many cases money does help a lot, but my point is that you can reverse-engineer a lifestyle that supports your passions and true needs by making more active choices. It makes no sense to me that some people spend the better part of their lives in jobs that they hate, trapped in a high standard of living or just marching towards the promise of a comfortable retirement. Who the hell knows if you're even alive by then? #Knowaddamsayin? Now the only reason why I'm being sarcastic about it is because I was THAT guy, heading full speed towards emotional bankruptcy. Fortunately I'd like to think that I became more self aware and now spend the most of my time on things I want to be doing anyway. My lists got significantly shorter since I was able to shave off the non-essential bullshit goals on them. And the remaining ones give me a reason to wake up in the morning. 

Conclusion - I want to be transparent about the main motive behind this post. Some of you might have gotten value out of the tips on creating more exciting and specific goals. Yet my suspicion is that many human desires and goals stem from a need for more stuff, while at the same time living in a world with finite resources. I don't want to be just another foam-mouthed guy who tells you to live a meaningful life by following your heart or to save the environment. These things are not only related, but absolutely necessary for any serious attempt to find happiness whatsoever. People's lives and relationships, major institutions and whole countries are being ruined by overconsumption. We've completely lost all sense of proportion and need to have a collective mindset shift about this. We are witnessing the degradation and rampant destruction of our planet, numb or in denial of the soon-to-be irreversible effects that await us, all FOR WHAT? Listen I like to buy camera gear, books and spend a decent amount of money on travels. I imagine you've got a week spot for something. At least enjoy the stuff you're buying, don't just fill your house with crap you never even wanted in the first place. As a society we cannot afford it. And as an individual you will become liberated.

I'd like to end with a story that my mom once told me about the best birthday present that she ever got. Just talking about it made her light up. As a young girl in Ukraine during the 60's, her aunt took her to the circus and I can tell that the experience still brings back vivid memories of that day. Now how many impersonal gifts from the store would have that effect?

I rest my case...

What do you want to be when you grow up?

This question always annoyed me somewhat during my childhood. Most probably because everyone around me seemed to have a clear-cut answer along with that excited look on their face for the grown ups who - (often) squatting next to you - did their best to look interested. The best answer I remember producing during these early and fragile years was "police officer", copying some other guys answer from class. I sort of lacked the excitement an aspiring police officer would manifest, when laying out his future plans, but at least the grown ups would leave you alone - for a while.

Meanwhile in my free time, I was borrowing every single book on dinosaurs, space, animals and nature from the libraries. preferably those with cool pictures in them. I developed an obsession for drawing animals from the books, neatly cutting them into shapes and sticking them onto my window. One day I was almost home from school and - to my horror - found orangutans, bears and penguins on the street pavement below my window... Supposedly the wind took them. Whenever my parents let me hold the camera during walks to the park and such, the focus went straight towards pigeons, ducks and whatever other animal I could find in sight. I began cataloguing the creatures I had caught on film in some folder, and received much satisfaction from - sitting cross-legged in our living room - watching the collection.

Fast-forward a couple of years. 

I'm now about to turn 18 and and still can't produce a satisfactory answer as to what I will be focusing my career on.  I specifically remember saying that: "If money wasn't an issue, I would totally work at a zoo or something." But I know better. Right? You need to be mature and realistic about it. Right? I had been busting my ass in school my entire life, awarded with good grades and a seat waiting for me in law school. On paper I was supposed to be happy. Inside I was getting more and more hollow, and then everything changed. I was playing Nintendo Wii one evening with a buddy of mine, flapping our arms, trying to knock the other guy out in some glitchy boxing game. Suddenly I started getting this annoying chest pain that just kept escalating in intensity.  I ended up going to the emergency room with my dad, had some x-ray images taken and found out I had a tumor in my chest the size of 1/4 rugby ball. 

Sometimes in life stuff happens to you that you INSTANTLY know will change everything. This was one of those moments. Time s l o w e d down, the outside world and your time in it, with all it's career anxiety, broken relationships, wars, food, sex, gossip, expectations. All of it muted in one stroke. I stayed at the hospital for one whole week until further tests could be made and needless to say had a lot on my mind. It is even tempting to say that those days made me who I am today, for better and for worse. Nothing short of dying and being reborn can describe the mental process I underwent. Will I live to see the end of the year? Will I have time to experience true love? What would happen to my parents if I died? Those were some of the questions that kept buzzing in my head. Oddly enough, the most heart-wrenching questions were the ones that had to do with my priorities in life. Had i been happy thus far, IF this was my time to go? A long and silent pause filled the room. To have asked the question was to answer it...

The truth was that I had lost all concept of what really made me happy. The word, happy, to me both carried a sort of vagueness but also a profound clarity to it, since I knew for certain that I wasn't happy. I had become an expert on suppressing my feelings - sacrificing my today for the promise of a better tomorrow. Following directions and meeting expectations no matter where they came from, as long as they weren't my own. 

Following a successful surgery and a couple of annual check-ups - showing no signs of complications or regrowth - it began to dawn on me that I had dodged a bullet. For a couple of years, I was YOLO personified. As I would like to see it, catching up on the lost years from my previous life. Slowly but surely though, I was beginning to develop my own version of YOLO. Not one where you live like a pirate but rather one in which you try to do something meaningful and equally important, personally fulfilling, with your life. I am not gonna lie to you. It was extremely difficult for me to clarify what I liked or who I was, even to myself! All this time I had been looking to others for answers when it had been staring me in the face all along. (Yes dear reader, I will finally reconnect my story to the intro now).

As I'm writing this, a relatively new and strong mood is present in me. I, am present to the world and to myself. Even as late as last week, I hadn't the slightest clue of what I wanted to be or to do in life. With two months left of law school that fact began to take its toll on me. It wasn't until I began connecting all of the dots that it hit me like a ton of bricks: I am going to focus my entire life, in one way or another, on promoting and preserving nature, wildlife, and our common heritage - The earth.  Whether it be through my legal expertise, by artistic means, or simply by being the change I want to see in the world. When I look at it now in reverse, it all seems obvious and straight-forward, but it's hard to get a clear view when you're in the trenches. It was the culmination of tons of soul-searching, bumping into dead ends, voracious reading and time alone. REAL victory is truly sweet though.

If anything, I want this text to...

• Give you permission to be vulnerable
• Make you trust your gut feeling more often. An idea is not untrue just because it originates in you.
• Echo the fact that time is our only limited currency 
• Remind you of our responsibility towards the planet and to ourselves. The world has lots of unmet needs and monstrous circumstances for the weak and poor. But even if we got rid of all injustice TODAY, it would still mean very little to us if our earth meanwhile is ruined.

 With that said, this is the first blog entry (of many to come) on my website. Some of you visited it a while back when it was brand new, and had no real reason to return, since I wasn't as active as I wanted to be at the time. All of that is about to change. And if you liked this post then please feel free to leave a comment or to share it with someone who might need to hear its message. I will be posting all things related to nature and wildlife, photography, book reviews, interviews with influencers, diaries from my journeys abroad, personal development and much, much more :)

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life" - Steve Jobs